Un mercado laboral que no permite generar antigüedad y un sistema de pensiones desigual provocará que esta generación difícilmente pueda acceder a una pensión digna cuando tenga edad para retirarse.
Ser millennial, mexicano y no tener una cultura del ahorro son una mala combinación. Los integrantes de esta generación, que oscilan entre los 20 a 35 años, sufrirán al momento de querer tener una pensión en su vejez.
La condena para los millennials se agudiza al momento de analizar que les tocará pagar las pensiones de sus padres, abuelos y jubilados que trabajaron en compañías estatales como Pemex o que, incluso, ya no existen, como Luz y Fuerza.
El sistema de pensiones en México es insostenible, desigual y carece de transparencia, asegura Héctor Villarreal, director general del Centro de Investigación Económica y Presupuestaria (CIEP).
“La generación millennial sufrirá al momento de querer acceder a una pensión cuando tenga 60 años. No solo deberá pagar las pensiones de sus antecesores, también las de jubilados a los que ni siquiera conocerá. Es muy injusto para estos jóvenes”, reconoce el director del CIEP.
Las cifras no mienten. El pago de pensiones representa el 15.5 por ciento del Presupuesto de Egresos de la Federación (PEF) en 2017 y 3.7 del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), con tendencia a incrementarse en los próximos años, “lo que generará presiones sobre el presupuesto restante”, explica en entrevista el investigador.
Villarreal asegura que la principal desigualdad del sistema de pensiones en México es que 40 por ciento de la población contribuye para pagar las pensiones del 15 por ciento.
El también doctor en microeconomía aplicada expone que el sistema de pensiones en el país enfrenta tres principales retos:
1. El gasto de las pensiones se financia con gasto corriente
2. Los millennials podrían no cotizar el número suficiente de semanas para garantizar una pensión mínima, debido a un mercado laboral más flexible y menos seguro, y si logran el número de semanas, recibirán muy poco.
3. Los jóvenes que nunca entraron a un sistema de cuentas individuales no tendrán amigos o familiares en los cuales apoyarse.
“Es una bomba de tiempo para los millennials. Quizá ahorita no vemos reflejados los efectos negativos que tendrán, pero en unas décadas sí y será muy duro”, lamentó Villarreal, al reconocer que esta generación deberá pagar por cosas que no deben.
La fantasía millennial
En la actualidad, el mercado laboral reúne a tres generaciones: baby boomers, generación X y millennials. La generación del Milenio se ha convertido en una pieza clave para la economía. Se estima que en la próxima década, esta población conformará el 75 por ciento de la fuerza laboral mundial.
Tan sólo en México, esta generación representa casi 30 millones de habitantes, una cuarta parte de la población total del país, de acuerdo con datos del Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (Inegi).
Sunny Villa, directora de Gasto Público del CIEP, explica que las empresas se han adaptado a estos integrantes al ofrecer políticas de salario emocional y esquemas flexibles de trabajo. Sin embargo, se han olvidado de lo más importante: “ofrecer mecanismos que les permitan asegurar una pensión digna cuando se retiren del mercado laboral. Es un espejismo”.
Pagan por pensiones de otras generaciones
Los millennials están pagando las pensiones de sus abuelos y padres. “Nadie esperaba que las personas vivieran tanto tiempo como están viviendo, ni en tales cantidades. Las pensiones que se prometieron en el pasado, y que parecían normales en ese momento, son ahora demasiado generosas, y esto está perjudicando ahora a los jóvenes adultos”, dice el diario británico The Guardian en una publicación.
Asimismo, cita a Jonathan Gardner, un economista experimentado (y miembro de la generación X) de Willis Towers Watson, compañía de seguros y de asesoramiento en pensiones más importantes del mundo, quien afirma que los jubilados están absorbiendo tanto dinero que no quedan fondos para subir los salarios. “Por varios motivos, en el pasado no se ha ingresado lo suficiente, lo que da lugar a déficits que la empresa tiene que pagar”, explica.
En el caso de México, los jubilados de la extinta Compañía de Luz y Fuerza del Centro(LyFC), que fue liquidada en 2009, recibirán pensiones promedio de 970,944 pesos al año. Es decir, 80,912 pesos mensuales, mientras que los pensionados del IMSS recibirán una pensión promedio de 85,600 pesos anuales, 7,133 pesos al mes. Mientras que los beneficiarios del programa Pensiones para Adultos Mayores (PAM) es de 7,200 pesos al año en promedio.
Por otra parte, las pensiones promedio de trabajadores jubilados de Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) y la Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) son de 500,000 pesos al año.
El gobierno federal entregó en septiembre de 2016 la iniciativa de Presupuesto de Egresos de la Federación 2017, en la que se propone un gasto en pago de pensiones de 720,128 millones de pesos, 14 por ciento más que en 2016.
El panorama de jubilación para los millennials es sombrío, asegura Héctor Villarreal. Entonces, ¿qué ocurrirá en unas décadas cuando los miembros de esta generación envejezcan y no cuenten con suficientes recursos para mantener un nivel de vida sin necesidad de trabajar? La respuesta a esta pregunta, al menos por ahora, asegura Sunny Villa, puede ser una: “Los millennials deben comprender que su jubilación no será igual a la de sus padres, por ello, es importante que desde hoy comiencen a ser conscientes de su futuro. Solo de ellos dependerá si tendrán una vejez digna o no”.
El enemigo silencioso que amenaza a los millennials – Mandarina Blog
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